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Aug 4

The Signs Were Always There: Training-Free Concept Detection and Steering in Raw Transformer Dimensions

The standard basis of transformer hidden states is a training-free, architecture-general feature basis for detecting concepts and, in language models, steering them; with no learned dictionary. Individual dimensions act as binary registers read one at a time: their signs (+/-1) encode content, their magnitudes strength. A feature is just a subset of dimensions with a consistent sign pattern, read by counting sign agreements. We validate this Bag of Dims (BoD) framework across seven models spanning language, vision, and audio; reading dimensions one at a time loses nothing, as a full-capacity MLP adds zero AUC over per-dim reading. The same per-dimension signs appear in every modality, so they reflect transformer training itself, not the language objective. Sign alone carries predictive content: setting all magnitudes to unity preserves 60-93% top-5 next-token accuracy through the LM head. From a single-token cache (one forward pass per token, no labels) we detect 175 categories at AUC 0.97-0.99 by counting sign agreements, and from random seeds alone discovery scales to 1500 features per model. A trained probe adds only +0.018 AUC and converges to axis-aligned weights: the rotation dictionaries learn buys little. Signs are causally operative: they survive the attention projections, and flipping a concept's sign pattern in the live forward pass suppresses it. Reading and steering are separate roles in the same basis: a concept's reader dimensions are not its writer dimensions. The writer target is just as cheap, the sign of the summed unembedding rows over a few seeds, no training. Injected through the attention output pathway under closed-loop control, it steers concepts into fluent text on four language models (62-92% of twelve concepts). The signs were in the standard basis all along; the open problem is no longer finding the right rotation but cataloging what each dimension encodes.

  • 1 authors
·
Jul 7 2

Resolution-Aware Perpetual Futures on Binary Prediction Markets: An Empirical Risk-Design Framework Using Polymarket Data

We develop and counterfactually evaluate a resolution-aware risk-design framework (PIRAP) for perpetual futures whose underlying tracks a single binary prediction-market probability through resolution. The framework specifies six components: an index estimator combining mid-price, depth-weighted mid, and time-decayed VWAP; jump-aware tiered margin sized against bounded-event terminal-collapse magnitude; leverage compression schedule contracting toward resolution; resolution-aware funding rule with boundary-aware correction; a multi-stage halt protocol; and an eligibility framework. Two formal non-portability propositions establish that standard basis-only funding paired with continuous-vol static margin fails on bounded-event underlyings. Empirical evaluation uses Polymarket's PMXT v2 archive for 2026-04-21 to 2026-04-27 (13,298-market analysis sample passing adequacy gates from 61,087 ingested; 13,115 resolved within the empirical window for E3). E1 evaluates two pre-registered stylized facts; E2 conducts counterfactual replay across three engine configurations; E3 isolates the resolution-zone protocol's contribution. Results are mixed. Five pre-registered floors: stylized-fact floors (boundary depth asymmetry, terminal-jump magnitude) PASS; welfare-side directional floors (final-hour liquidation -6%, drawdown -5.1% pooled, median PnL +14%) two FAIL one PASS; E3 mechanic floors (final-hour liquidation -80% by halt construction PASS; bad-debt frequency +2.4% FAIL). Three of five materiality floors fail: the framework as specified does not validate deployment, but the empirical record establishes a halt-versus-margin scope distinction (halt addresses execution-channel risk; terminal-jump bad-debt remains margin-side) and documents a pre-emption trade-off constraining the dynamic-margin component. The paper concludes with structural recommendations and explicit non-deployable status.

  • 1 authors
·
May 10

Exact Learning of Permutations for Nonzero Binary Inputs with Logarithmic Training Size and Quadratic Ensemble Complexity

The ability of an architecture to realize permutations is quite fundamental. For example, Large Language Models need to be able to correctly copy (and perhaps rearrange) parts of the input prompt into the output. Classical universal approximation theorems guarantee the existence of parameter configurations that solve this task but offer no insights into whether gradient-based algorithms can find them. In this paper, we address this gap by focusing on two-layer fully connected feed-forward neural networks and the task of learning permutations on nonzero binary inputs. We show that in the infinite width Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK) regime, an ensemble of such networks independently trained with gradient descent on only the k standard basis vectors out of 2^k - 1 possible inputs successfully learns any fixed permutation of length k with arbitrarily high probability. By analyzing the exact training dynamics, we prove that the network's output converges to a Gaussian process whose mean captures the ground truth permutation via sign-based features. We then demonstrate how averaging these runs (an "ensemble" method) and applying a simple rounding step yields an arbitrarily accurate prediction on any possible input unseen during training. Notably, the number of models needed to achieve exact learning with high probability (which we refer to as ensemble complexity) exhibits a linearithmic dependence on the input size k for a single test input and a quadratic dependence when considering all test inputs simultaneously.

  • 3 authors
·
Feb 23, 2025

Discovery of Nonlinear Dynamics with Automated Basis Function Generation

Discovering governing equations from observational data remains a fundamental challenge in scientific modeling, particularly when the underlying mathematical structure is unknown. Traditional sparse identification methods like SINDy excel at discovering parsimonious models but require researchers to specify candidate basis functions a priori, a limitation that often leads to model failure when critical terms are omitted or when systems exhibit unconventional dynamics. Purely symbolic regression approaches offer unlimited flexibility but struggle with noise sensitivity and frequently produce overly complex, unstable equations. We present AutoSINDy, a hybrid Discovery-then-Solve framework that combines the exploratory power of symbolic regression with the robust sparsity-promoting capabilities of SINDy. Our method operates in three stages: (1) PySR-based symbolic regression discovers candidate functional forms from bootstrapped data chunks; (2) a curation pipeline decomposes, expands, and filters these expressions using collinearity analysis to construct a minimal yet comprehensive library; and (3) SINDy identifies sparse governing equations from this custom-tailored library. Extensive experiments across canonical nonlinear systems demonstrate that AutoSINDy consistently recovers ground-truth equations even under high observational noise, achieving a ground-truth recovery rate of 92.8% across all trials. Compared with standard SINDy using enriched libraries and standalone symbolic regression, AutoSINDy achieves higher predictive accuracy, superior generalization to unseen trajectories, and substantially lower symbolic complexity.

  • 2 authors
·
May 9

Three-Currency HJM for Brazilian Credit Markets

This paper develops a three-currency Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework in which corporate credit is treated as a separate economy, connected to the nominal and real economies through synthetic inflation and credit exchange rates. The framework produces a testable identity. Under joint no-arbitrage, the credit spread of an issuer expressed over the inflation-rateindexed risk-free curve equals the same issuer's credit spread expressed over the nominalrate-indexed risk-free curve plus the model-implied breakeven inflation forward at the same maturity. The identity holds within any single calibration of the framework. It is empirically falsifiable across two parallel corporate-bond segments of the same market, in a segmented market the two segments may price different corporate credit economies, and the gap between their implied corporate forwards measures the failure of the shared-credit-economy assumption. Applied to Brazilian debenture markets, the framework delivers a sharp empirical finding. Fifteen large issuers placed paper in both the CDI-indexed general-purpose segment and the IPCA-indexed infrastructure segment between January 2021 and February 2026. The within-issuer triangle residual at the 3-year tenor averages 640 basis points, with crosssectional standard deviation of 26 basis points across the 15 issuer means, and remains stable through both the 2021-2023 BCB tightening cycle and the 2024-2026 easing phase. A retail post-tax indifference benchmark anchored on Lei 12.431 closes the bulk of the residual. The remainder is consistent with institutional participation on the CDI side, contractual asymmetries between debentures with different use-of-proceeds restrictions, and segment-specific liquidity gaps.

  • 1 authors
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May 27

Code as a Weapon: A Consensus-Labeled Prompt Bank for Measuring Coding-Model Compliance with Malicious-Code Requests

A general-purpose language model that answers a harmful question returns text; a coding model that complies with a malicious request can return a working weapon -- a keylogger, a ransomware stub, an exploit that runs as written. This asymmetry in the severity of a single act of compliance implies coding-specialized models should clear a higher refusal bar than general-purpose chat models, not a lower one, yet the field cannot presently tell whether they do. Refusal benchmarks for malicious code are fragmented: they mix requests for executable software (ready-to-run weapons) with requests for harmful security knowledge (information a human must still operationalise) and report refusal rates over non-comparable corpora, so no single statistic measures the property that actually matters. This paper introduces an expanded consensus-labeled prompt bank that distinguishes between these two request types and provides a construct-stable substrate for cross-corpus coding-model compliance measurement. Eight corpora (ASTRA, CySecBench, AdvBench/harmful_behaviors, JailbreakBench, MalwareBench, RedCode, RMCBench, Scam2Prompt) are consolidated and classified under a five-judge consensus protocol (6,675 prompts x 5 judges = 33,375 calls). The panel reaches Fleiss' kappa = 0.767 [95% CI 0.755, 0.777] ("substantial"); 95.0% of prompts draw at least four agreeing judges, 76.9% are unanimous, and the panel reproduces the earlier four-corpus release at Cohen's kappa = 0.952 on the 3,133 shared prompts. The released bank comprises 4,748 consensus-CODE prompts (executable malicious code requests) and 1,923 consensus-KNOWLEDGE prompts (harmful security knowledge requests). The bank is the validated instrument the field has lacked: a reliability-quantified basis for testing whether coding models meet the stricter refusal standard their executable output demands.

  • 2 authors
·
May 26

Why Can't Transformers Learn Multiplication? Reverse-Engineering Reveals Long-Range Dependency Pitfalls

Language models are increasingly capable, yet still fail at a seemingly simple task of multi-digit multiplication. In this work, we study why, by reverse-engineering a model that successfully learns multiplication via implicit chain-of-thought, and report three findings: (1) Evidence of long-range structure: Logit attributions and linear probes indicate that the model encodes the necessary long-range dependencies for multi-digit multiplication. (2) Mechanism: the model encodes long-range dependencies using attention to construct a directed acyclic graph to ``cache'' and ``retrieve'' pairwise partial products. (3) Geometry: the model implements partial products in attention heads by forming Minkowski sums between pairs of digits, and digits are represented using a Fourier basis, both of which are intuitive and efficient representations that the standard fine-tuning model lacks. With these insights, we revisit the learning dynamics of standard fine-tuning and find that the model converges to a local optimum that lacks the required long-range dependencies. We further validate this understanding by introducing an auxiliary loss that predicts the ``running sum'' via a linear regression probe, which provides an inductive bias that enables the model to successfully learn multi-digit multiplication. In summary, by reverse-engineering the mechanisms of an implicit chain-of-thought model we uncover a pitfall for learning long-range dependencies in Transformers and provide an example of how the correct inductive bias can address this issue.

  • 8 authors
·
Sep 30, 2025 3

Pre-Flight: A Benchmark for Evaluating Large Language Models on Aviation Operational Knowledge

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly proposed for aviation business operations, from documentation and training generation to customer facing assistants. General purpose benchmarks do not measure whether a model reasons safely and correctly about aviation specific operational knowledge, and the high stakes, regulated nature of the domain makes that gap consequential. We present Pre-Flight, an open source benchmark of 300 multiple choice questions drawn from international standards and airport ground operations material, covering international airport ground operations, ICAO and US FAA regulations, aviation general knowledge and complex operational scenarios. Questions were authored and reviewed by practitioners with experience in air traffic management, ground operations and commercial flying. We evaluate a range of contemporary commercial and open weight models using the Inspect evaluation framework, scoring by accuracy under a standard multiple choice protocol, and we maintain the leaderboard on a rolling basis as new models are released. Against an informal expert reference of around 95%, obtained from a low sample quiz of aviation professionals at a conference, even the strongest model evaluated (released in 2026) reaches 82.7%, having improved only gradually from roughly 75% in early 2025. A substantial and persistent gap below expert level reliability therefore remains. We release the dataset, the evaluation harness and the results, and the benchmark is available within the community evaluations package distributed with inspect_evals. We argue that domain specific evaluation of this kind is a necessary precondition for responsible deployment of generative AI in non safety critical aviation operations.

  • 2 authors
·
Jul 2

The Many Dimensions of Truthfulness: Crowdsourcing Misinformation Assessments on a Multidimensional Scale

Recent work has demonstrated the viability of using crowdsourcing as a tool for evaluating the truthfulness of public statements. Under certain conditions such as: (1) having a balanced set of workers with different backgrounds and cognitive abilities; (2) using an adequate set of mechanisms to control the quality of the collected data; and (3) using a coarse grained assessment scale, the crowd can provide reliable identification of fake news. However, fake news are a subtle matter: statements can be just biased ("cherrypicked"), imprecise, wrong, etc. and the unidimensional truth scale used in existing work cannot account for such differences. In this paper we propose a multidimensional notion of truthfulness and we ask the crowd workers to assess seven different dimensions of truthfulness selected based on existing literature: Correctness, Neutrality, Comprehensibility, Precision, Completeness, Speaker's Trustworthiness, and Informativeness. We deploy a set of quality control mechanisms to ensure that the thousands of assessments collected on 180 publicly available fact-checked statements distributed over two datasets are of adequate quality, including a custom search engine used by the crowd workers to find web pages supporting their truthfulness assessments. A comprehensive analysis of crowdsourced judgments shows that: (1) the crowdsourced assessments are reliable when compared to an expert-provided gold standard; (2) the proposed dimensions of truthfulness capture independent pieces of information; (3) the crowdsourcing task can be easily learned by the workers; and (4) the resulting assessments provide a useful basis for a more complete estimation of statement truthfulness.

  • 7 authors
·
Aug 2, 2021

LeanSearch v2: Global Premise Retrieval for Lean 4 Theorem Proving

Proving theorems in Lean 4 often requires identifying a scattered set of library lemmas whose joint use enables a concise proof -- a task we call global premise retrieval. Existing tools address adjacent problems: semantic search engines find individual declarations matching a query, while premise-selection systems predict useful lemmas one tactic step at a time. Neither recovers the full premise set an entire theorem requires. We present LeanSearch v2, a two-mode retrieval system for this task. Its standard mode applies a hierarchy-informalized Mathlib corpus with an embedding-reranker pipeline, achieving state-of-the-art single-query retrieval without domain-specific fine-tuning (nDCG@10 of 0.62 vs. 0.53 for the next-best system). Its reasoning mode builds on standard mode as its retrieval substrate, targeting global premise retrieval through iterative sketch-retrieve-reflect cycles. On a 69-query benchmark of research-level Mathlib theorems, reasoning mode recovers 46.1% of ground-truth premise groups within 10 retrieved candidates, outperforming strong reasoning retrieval systems (38.0%) and premise-selection baselines (9.3%) on the same benchmark. In a controlled downstream evaluation with a fixed prover loop, replacing alternative retrievers with LeanSearch v2 yields the highest proof success (20% vs. 16% for the next-best system and 4% without retrieval), confirming that retrieval quality propagates to proof generation. We have open-sourced all code, data, and benchmarks. Code and data: https://github.com/frenzymath/LeanSearch-v2 . The standard mode is publicly available with API access at https://leansearch.net/ .

  • 8 authors
·
May 13

BT^2: Backward-compatible Training with Basis Transformation

Modern retrieval system often requires recomputing the representation of every piece of data in the gallery when updating to a better representation model. This process is known as backfilling and can be especially costly in the real world where the gallery often contains billions of samples. Recently, researchers have proposed the idea of Backward Compatible Training (BCT) where the new representation model can be trained with an auxiliary loss to make it backward compatible with the old representation. In this way, the new representation can be directly compared with the old representation, in principle avoiding the need for any backfilling. However, followup work shows that there is an inherent tradeoff where a backward compatible representation model cannot simultaneously maintain the performance of the new model itself. This paper reports our ``not-so-surprising'' finding that adding extra dimensions to the representation can help here. However, we also found that naively increasing the dimension of the representation did not work. To deal with this, we propose Backward-compatible Training with a novel Basis Transformation (BT^2). A basis transformation (BT) is basically a learnable set of parameters that applies an orthonormal transformation. Such a transformation possesses an important property whereby the original information contained in its input is retained in its output. We show in this paper how a BT can be utilized to add only the necessary amount of additional dimensions. We empirically verify the advantage of BT^2 over other state-of-the-art methods in a wide range of settings. We then further extend BT^2 to other challenging yet more practical settings, including significant change in model architecture (CNN to Transformers), modality change, and even a series of updates in the model architecture mimicking the evolution of deep learning models.

  • 7 authors
·
Nov 7, 2022